BABIP
Batting Average on Balls in Play -- the rate at which batted balls fall for hits, excluding strikeouts, walks, and home runs. League average is roughly .300.
Like a basketball player hitting contested shots at 60% -- impressive, but it will not last.
Why it matters
BABIP identifies luck. A hitter with .380 BABIP is likely overperforming; a pitcher with .240 BABIP is getting fortunate.
How DMP uses this
DMP uses BABIP context to identify players whose recent stats are likely to regress toward normal levels.
Common mistake
Treating a hot streak at .400 BABIP as sustainable -- luck evens out, and that hitter will cool off.