Model Performance
Real results from DMP's Recommended Bets — graded against closing lines from sharp books. Beating the close (CLV) is the industry-standard proof of long-term edge.
Sport-specific Monte Carlo simulator builds an expected value and uncertainty range per stat, calibrated against historical resolved bets so the stated probability matches the actual hit rate.
The projection shifts up or down for what's actually happening today — injury redistribution, pace, matchup, lineup, park, and weather — depending on the sport.
Only bets where the offered price gives positive expected value against the calibrated probability are recommended. The numbers below are the survivors — most props get filtered out.
Step 3 outcomes: every bet here passed the +EV gate against a calibrated projection plus today's context. Flat 1-unit bets at best available odds.
Tracking started February 22, 2026. Results update within minutes of game completion.