Back-Testing
Running a betting model or strategy against historical data to see how it would have performed in the past.
Like a pilot practicing in a simulator before flying a real plane -- test the approach before it counts.
Why it matters
Back-testing validates whether your strategy works before risking real money. It reveals hidden flaws and overfitting.
How DMP uses this
DMP back-tests its projection models against historical results to validate accuracy and calibrate confidence.
Common mistake
Overfitting to historical data -- a model that perfectly predicts the past often fails on future games.