Bayesian Updating
Adjusting your probability estimate as new information arrives, weighting prior knowledge with fresh evidence.
Like adjusting your rain forecast from 30% to 60% when you see clouds, not jumping straight to 100%.
Why it matters
Markets update in a Bayesian style: an injury report changes the probability, it does not start from scratch.
How DMP uses this
DMP's projection system updates player lines as new information like injuries, lineup changes, and weather becomes available.
Common mistake
Overreacting to single data points -- Bayesian thinking means updating gradually, not flipping your entire view.