Blowout Risk
The probability that a game becomes lopsided enough for starters to be pulled early, typically when the margin exceeds 20+ points in the 4th quarter.
Like a contractor finishing a job early: they might have the skills to do more work, but once the job is done (game decided), they stop.
Why it matters
Blowout risk is a silent prop killer — a star player can be on pace for 35 points through three quarters and finish with 24 because the game was out of hand.
How DMP uses this
DMP factors blowout risk into projections using spread-derived probabilities, reducing projected minutes and stats for starters on heavy favorites.
Common mistake
Only considering the player's ability without accounting for game context — the most talented player still sits in garbage time.