Bottoms-Up (Fundamental) Research

Building your own probability estimate from raw data like player stats, matchups, and context - independent of the betting line.

Like appraising a house based on square footage, condition, and comparable sales - determining what it's actually worth.

Why it matters

Fundamental research lets you form your own opinion about true probability, which you compare to the market price to find value.

How DMP uses this

Our projections are fundamentally driven - we analyze opportunity, lineups, pace, and archetypes to project player performance.

Common mistake

Trusting your model blindly without checking if the market disagrees for good reason.