Consensus Probability

The market-wide implied probability derived from aggregating and devigging odds across multiple sharp sportsbooks.

Like taking the average estimate from multiple experts rather than trusting just one opinion.

Why it matters

Consensus probability is the market's best estimate of the true probability. Beating it consistently means you have real edge.

How DMP uses this

DMP builds consensus probability from sharp book odds, devigging and weighting by market efficiency.

Common mistake

Using a single book's odds as consensus -- true consensus requires aggregating multiple sharp sources.