Contrarian
A betting strategy that deliberately goes against popular opinion and public money. Contrarian bettors target games where the public has pushed the line past fair value.
Like buying a house in an undervalued neighborhood: going against the crowd works when you have data showing the market is wrong.
Why it matters
Contrarian betting works because the market overreacts to narratives, recent results, and popular teams, creating value on the other side.
How DMP uses this
DMP's EV and P(over) calculations are purely data-driven, naturally identifying contrarian opportunities when the model disagrees with public sentiment.
Common mistake
Being contrarian for its own sake — you need the line to have actually moved past fair value, not just disagree with the public opinion.