Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
A Football Outsiders metric measuring a team's efficiency on every play compared to league average, adjusted for opponent. Separate offensive, defensive, and special teams components.
Like adjusting a student's GPA for course difficulty — straight A's in easy classes isn't the same as straight A's in honors courses.
Why it matters
DVOA tells you how good a team truly is by accounting for schedule strength — a team with a great record against weak opponents will have a lower DVOA than their record suggests.
How DMP uses this
DMP references DVOA-style opponent adjustments when projecting NFL player props, ensuring that performances against weak defenses are weighted differently than those against strong ones.
Common mistake
Using raw yards or points allowed without adjusting for opponent quality — a defense that faces only top offenses will look worse than it is by raw stats.