Edge
The difference between your estimated probability and the market's implied probability. A +5% edge means you believe the true probability is 5 percentage points higher than what the odds imply.
Like counting cards in blackjack: you only bet big when the math says the remaining deck favors you, not when you have a hunch.
Why it matters
Edge is the fundamental reason to place a bet — without a positive edge, you're just paying the vig over time.
How DMP uses this
DMP calculates edge by comparing model P(over) against devigged consensus fair probability, surfacing props where the model sees meaningful positive expected value.
Common mistake
Conflating "I like this pick" with having an actual quantifiable edge — feelings don't overcome the mathematical reality of the vig.