Expected Points Added (EPA)
The number of expected points a play adds (or subtracts) compared to the average outcome from that game situation. A 20-yard pass on 3rd-and-5 adds more EPA than one on 1st-and-10.
Like comparing two employees: one who delivers exactly what's needed in critical moments versus one who produces the same output but in low-stakes situations.
Why it matters
EPA measures the actual value of a play in context — it's the best single metric for evaluating quarterback performance because it weights plays by situational importance.
How DMP uses this
DMP uses EPA-based quarterback evaluation to inform passing game projections, recognizing that efficient quarterbacks in high-EPA situations produce more consistent outputs.
Common mistake
Treating all yards equally — a 5-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 is far more valuable than a 5-yard gain on 1st-and-10, and EPA captures that difference.