Fair Probability
The true probability of an outcome after removing the sportsbook's margin (vig). If a -110/-110 line implies 52.4% for each side, the fair probability is 50% each.
Like a store's "retail price" vs the actual cost — you need to strip the markup to see the real value.
Why it matters
Comparing your model's P(over) against the fair probability — not the raw implied odds — is how you identify genuine edges.
How DMP uses this
DMP devigorishes consensus odds to compute fair probabilities for every prop, then compares them against model P(over) to surface +EV opportunities.
Common mistake
Using raw implied probability (which includes vig) as the "true" chance — this overstates the probability of every outcome.