Hit Rate
In props betting, the percentage of times a player goes over a given line. A player with a 70% hit rate on over 22.5 points has exceeded that line in 70% of their games.
Like checking what percentage of days it rained in March last year — useful context, but today's weather forecast matters more.
Why it matters
Historical hit rates at specific lines give you a quick baseline for how often a player clears a threshold, though they don't account for changing circumstances.
How DMP uses this
DMP computes hit rates from recent game logs and uses hit_rate_value as a context signal in the research candidates scoring pipeline.
Common mistake
Treating historical hit rate as a prediction without adjusting for opponent, home/away, rest, or lineup changes that affect the current game.