HR/FB Rate
Home Run to Fly Ball Rate -- the percentage of fly balls that leave the yard as home runs. League average is about 12-13%.
Like a golfer making every putt inside 20 feet for a month -- impressive, but it will not continue.
Why it matters
HR/FB rate is volatile and mean-reverting. A player at 25% HR/FB is likely due for a power dip.
How DMP uses this
DMP uses HR/FB rate to identify when a player's recent home run pace is likely unsustainable.
Common mistake
Projecting a hot HR pace forward when HR/FB is 30% -- that is double the normal rate and will regress.