Key Numbers

Specific point totals where games land most frequently. In NFL, 3 and 7 are key numbers because games are decided by exactly 3 points ~15% of the time and 7 points ~9% of the time.

Like the difference between a passing grade of 69 vs. 70 — one point at the right threshold changes everything.

Why it matters

Lines that cross key numbers have disproportionate value. The difference between +2.5 and +3.5 in football is worth far more than +4.5 to +5.5.

How DMP uses this

DMP's line movement tracking highlights when lines cross key numbers, signaling significant changes in fair value for spread markets.

Common mistake

Treating all half-point line moves as equal — crossing a key number is worth 3-5x more than crossing a non-key number.