P-Value
The probability of observing results at least as extreme as the data, assuming the null hypothesis is true. A low p-value suggests the result is unlikely due to chance alone.
Like a fire alarm — a low p-value says "this is probably not a drill," but it doesn't tell you how big the fire is.
Why it matters
It helps determine whether a betting signal or trend is genuinely predictive or just noise — a "system" that wins 55% over 20 bets might not be statistically significant.
How DMP uses this
DMP uses statistical significance thresholds internally when evaluating whether DVP matchup advantages and other signals are meaningful enough to influence projections.
Common mistake
Treating any p-value under 0.05 as proof of a real effect without considering sample size, multiple comparisons, or practical significance.