Probability Distribution
A mathematical function that describes all possible values of a random variable and how likely each one is. It maps every outcome to a probability.
Like a menu with prices — it lists every option (outcome) and what it costs (how likely it is).
Why it matters
Choosing the right distribution for a stat is the foundation of accurate prop modeling — get this wrong and every probability you calculate downstream is off.
How DMP uses this
DMP selects between normal and Poisson distributions depending on the stat type, ensuring P(over) calculations use the model that best fits each market.
Common mistake
Using one distribution model for all stats — three-pointers made and total points have fundamentally different probability shapes.