Projection Edge
The difference between your model's projected probability for an outcome and the market's implied probability after devigging.
Like knowing the true value of a used car when the seller is underpricing it -- your knowledge creates the edge.
Why it matters
Projection edge is the source of all +EV bets. If your model says 55% and the market says 48%, you have a 7% edge.
How DMP uses this
DMP calculates projection edge for every prop by comparing our P-over to the devigged consensus probability.
Common mistake
Confusing projection edge with guaranteed profit -- edge is probabilistic. Even 10% edges lose 40-45% of the time.