Regression to the Mean
The statistical tendency for extreme performances to be followed by more average ones. A player who scores 45 points is more likely to score closer to their average next game than to repeat 45.
Like a student who aces one exam — they're more likely to score closer to their usual grade next time than to ace it again.
Why it matters
It's the antidote to recency bias — chasing yesterday's hero is one of the most common and costly mistakes in prop betting.
How DMP uses this
DMP's projection system blends recent performance (L5/L10) with season averages specifically to account for regression, preventing overreaction to hot or cold streaks.
Common mistake
Assuming a player who just had a career game will keep producing at that level — extreme performances regress toward the mean, not away from it.