Sample Size
The number of observations (games, at-bats, possessions) used to calculate a statistic. Larger samples produce more reliable estimates of true ability.
Like tasting one grape and deciding the whole vineyard is sweet — you need to try more before drawing conclusions.
Why it matters
Early-season stats on 5 games are noisy and unreliable — you need enough data before patterns become trustworthy for betting decisions.
How DMP uses this
DMP weights recent games (L5, L10) against season-long averages, requiring minimum game thresholds before generating projections to avoid small-sample noise.
Common mistake
Overreacting to a 3-game hot streak as if it reveals a player's true level — small samples are dominated by randomness.