Target Share
The percentage of a team's total pass targets directed at a specific receiver. A 25% target share means one out of every four passes is thrown to that player.
Like a salesperson's share of incoming leads — more leads means more chances to close, regardless of close rate.
Why it matters
Target share is the best predictor of future receiving production — volume of opportunity matters more than efficiency in projecting fantasy and prop outcomes.
How DMP uses this
DMP uses target share as a core input for NFL receiver prop projections, identifying players whose volume supports consistent production.
Common mistake
Focusing on yards per target instead of target volume — a player with 8 targets per game at moderate efficiency is more bankable than one with 3 targets at elite efficiency.