True Odds
The actual probability of an outcome occurring, independent of any bookmaker's margin. True odds represent what the line "should" be in a perfectly efficient market with zero vig.
Like knowing the actual probability of rain versus what the weatherman says — if you're more accurate, you can make better decisions.
Why it matters
If you can estimate true odds more accurately than the market, you have an edge — that's the entire foundation of profitable sports betting.
How DMP uses this
DMP's projection system attempts to estimate true odds through statistical modeling, then compares these against the market's devigged consensus to find discrepancies.
Common mistake
Assuming the opening line represents true odds — lines reflect the book's best guess plus a margin, and they move as money comes in.