Player Props Fundamentals
Understand why player props offer better edges than game markets, why EV alone isn't enough, and how DMP helps you find real value.
You should read this if:
You want to understand why player props offer better edges than game markets.
After this section you'll say:
"Opportunity > past stats"
Why Player Props?
Where the edge lives for smart bettors.
Opportunity Over Past Stats
Why forward-looking analysis beats backward-looking.
Why Prop Markets Are Different
Prop lines are less efficient—and that changes everything about how you bet them.
Variance Tiers: Core vs Selective vs High-Variance Props
Not all props are created equal. Learn which ones to build your bankroll around and which to approach carefully.
Mean vs Median: Why Lines ≠ Averages
Sportsbook lines behave like medians, not means. This distinction changes how you evaluate every prop.
Prop Types Across Sports
A quick tour of the main prop categories in NBA, NFL, and MLB.
Over Bias: Why Sharps Bet Unders
The public overwhelmingly bets overs on player props. Books shade lines accordingly — and sharps exploit it.
Binary Props Are Different: Anytime TD & HR Yes/No
Binary (yes/no) props require probability-first thinking, not volume/rate thinking. Learn the key differences.