NFL Target Paths Guide
Understanding how targets flow through an offense
You should read this if:
You bet NFL props and want to understand the mental models that drive outcomes.
The Core Insight
"Targets are the currency of receiving. Know who gets them, where they line up, and what routes they run."
The NFL Mental Model
Target Share
What % of team targets?
Predicts: Higher share = more consistent opportunity
Air Yards Share
What % of downfield targets?
Predicts: Higher air yards = bigger plays but more variance
Route Alignment
Where do they line up?
Predicts: Slot vs outside affects matchup and route tree
Framework in Action: Alpha WR vs Slot Receiver
Alpha WR: 25% target share, 35% air yards share - high ceiling, moderate floor. Slot: 20% target share, 10% air yards share - lower ceiling, higher floor. Different profiles for different prop types.
When to Apply This Framework
- ✓Evaluating receiving props
- ✓Comparing similar receivers on same team
- ✓Identifying value when target share is mispriced
When to Pass
- ⚠️Receiver is WR3+ with volatile target share
- ⚠️New offense, target distribution unknown
- ⚠️QB change disrupts established patterns
Key Takeaways
- ✓Target share is the volume indicator
- ✓Air yards share indicates big play potential
- ✓Both together tell you the receiver's profile
How DMP Helps
DMP shows target share trends and air yards distribution for all receivers.
NCAAF Note
College football has wider talent disparities and less stable depth charts. Option/RPO-heavy schemes can dramatically shift rushing vs passing volume splits. Sample sizes are smaller — lean on matchup context over season stats.