Statistical Foundations
Learn the statistical distributions that power probability calculations for player props — normal, Poisson, and when to use each.
You should read this if:
You understand EV and devigging and want to learn the math behind probability calculations — normal distributions, Poisson, and when to use each.
After this section you'll say:
"I can calculate exact probabilities, not just guess"
The Normal Distribution for Player Props
How the bell curve converts a player's mean and standard deviation into exact over/under probabilities for any line.
The Poisson Distribution for Count Props
How to model discrete, countable events like touchdowns, home runs, and strikeouts using the Poisson distribution.
Which Distribution Should You Use?
A practical decision framework for choosing between Normal, Poisson, and Negative Binomial distributions for any player prop.
Understanding Variance-to-Mean Ratio (VMR)
The single most important diagnostic check before trusting Poisson probabilities — how to calculate VMR, interpret it, and avoid mispricing traps.