beginner

Variance & Discipline

Understand variance, process thinking, and why even great bets lose sometimes.

You should read this if:

You understand EV but wonder why good bets still lose sometimes.

After this section you'll say:

"Losing doesn't mean wrong"

Why good bets lose, bad bets win, and how to stay disciplined through both.

How expected value, closing line value, and variance work together.