How Injuries Redistribute Opportunity

When a star player is out, their production doesn't disappear—it gets redistributed to teammates. Understanding this flow is critical for finding value in player props.

The Redistribution Effect

Every player on a team has a certain "share" of team resources:

Usage rate - percentage of team possessions used while on court
Target share - percentage of team passing targets
Touch rate - how often they handle the ball

When a high-usage player sits, these resources flow to others.

Who Benefits Most?

Not all teammates benefit equally:

Same-position players often see the biggest boost
Secondary ball handlers gain usage in NBA
Target earners (not just receivers) benefit in NFL
Lineup spot matters in MLB

Real Example: NBA

If a team's primary scorer (30% usage) is out:

The second option might go from 24% → 28% usage
The third option might go from 20% → 23% usage
Role players see smaller but meaningful bumps

When to Apply This

✓ Check injury reports 2-4 hours before game time ✓ Look for players whose role expands with the absence ✓ Consider the magnitude of the absent player's usage

When to Pass

⚠️ If the injury just happened (lines already adjusted) ⚠️ If the backup is unclear or rotation is in flux ⚠️ If the team is expected to blow out or get blown out

How DMP Helps

DMP shows injury context directly on prop cards, highlighting when a player's opportunity is affected by teammate absences.

How Injuries Redistribute Opportunity