Stats for The Matchup — Offensive Evaluation
The stats DMP uses to evaluate hitters and matchups, and why BA, RBIs, and hot streaks mislead
You should read this if:
You bet MLB props and want to understand the mental models that drive outcomes.
The Core Insight
"wOBA properly weights every offensive event by its actual run value. Batting average ignores walks and treats all hits equally. OPS incorrectly weights OBP and SLG 1:1 when OBP is worth roughly 2x."
The MLB Mental Model
wOBA (use) vs BA (misleading)
Weights: BB .69, 1B .88, 2B 1.25, HR 2.03
Predicts: True offensive skill. Excellent: .390+, Great: .370, Average: .320, Awful: .290-
ISO (use) for power props
SLG minus BA — strips out singles, pure extra-base power
Predicts: HR and TB potential. Excellent: .250, Great: .200, Average: .140, Awful: .080
Barrel Rate (Statcast)
98+ mph exit velo at optimal launch angle
Predicts: Best single predictor of power output. Top hitters barrel 10%+ of PA.
Never use: BA alone, RBIs, hot streaks
BA ignores walks. RBI is 60% lineup context. Hot streaks are random noise.
Predicts: Nothing reliable — these are contaminated or context-dependent stats
Framework in Action: Why RBIs Are Assists, Not Skill
Mike Trout had fewer RBIs than Albert Pujols not because Trout was worse, but because Trout did not have Trout batting in front of him. To model RBI props, you need to model the lineup — who bats ahead, what is their OBP, how many runners will be on base. The individual hitter's skill is about 40% of the equation.
When to Apply This Framework
- ✓Use wOBA as the baseline offensive skill metric, never BA or OPS
- ✓Use ISO for power-dependent props (TB, HR) — it isolates extra-base ability
- ✓Platoon splits are the #1 matchup variable — 20-30% swing based on handedness
When to Pass
- ⚠️Never use batting average alone to evaluate a hitter
- ⚠️Never treat RBIs as individual skill — model the lineup context
- ⚠️Never trust hot streaks as predictive — check BABIP first
Key Takeaways
- ✓OBP is worth roughly 2x SLG in driving runs, but OPS treats them equally — use wOBA instead
- ✓Platoon splits are persistent, measurable, and large — the single biggest free edge in matchup analysis
- ✓Barrel rate is the Statcast metric that matters most for power props
How DMP Helps
DMP uses wOBA and ISO as primary offensive inputs, shows platoon split data, and surfaces barrel rate for power props.