MLB Learning Path
Stage 2 • Sport Framework + Props
Read the conditions. The arm, the matchup, the environment, the number.
Key Insight
MLB is a conditions game. Baseball has more randomness per game than any sport — a .300 hitter fails 70% of the time. Your edge comes from reading the full stack of conditions and finding where the market priced the average instead.
The Conditions Game — Framework Overview
See the full 4-step framework with infographic and FAQ
⚠️ Complete Stage 1 (Market Literacy) before diving into MLB frameworks.
Go to Stage 1MLB Framework
Mental models for understanding how MLB stats are generated
MLB Fundamentals
Why baseball is a conditions game
The Arm — Pitcher-First Analysis
Step 1: The pitcher controls the game
The Matchup — Platoon Splits & Archetypes
Step 2: Where 20-30% swings hide
The Environment — Park, Weather & Lineup
Step 3: What makes MLB unique
The Number — Regression & Market Edges
Step 4: Is the market pricing the average?
MLB Prop Day Walkthrough
All 4 steps applied to a real game
The Stabilization Calendar
When to trust which stats — your betting calendar
Stats for The Arm
FIP, K%, xFIP — why we use them over ERA
Stats for The Matchup
wOBA, ISO, platoon splits — what actually predicts
Stats for The Environment
Park factors, weather, lineup position
Stats for The Number
BABIP, FIP-ERA gap, xwOBA — regression signals
MLB Props
Prop-specific analysis strategies for MLB
Props We Cover
Quick Reference
- ✓Complete framework pages before prop strategy pages
- ✓Apply frameworks to understand WHY props move
- ⚠️Sport-specific context matters more than generic patterns