Stats for The Redistribution — Opportunity Analysis
Injury tiers, on/off impact, and redistribution budget — the stats that quantify opportunity changes
You should read this if:
You bet NBA props and want to understand the mental models that drive outcomes.
The Core Insight
"The tier system quantifies how much opportunity is being redistributed. The redistribution budget caps how much can flow. On/off data tells you WHERE it historically flows."
The NBA Mental Model
Injury Tiers (A-D)
Based on minutes and usage of the absent player
Predicts: Tier A (30+ MPG, high usage): MAJOR. Tier B (26+ MPG): Meaningful. Tier C (15+ MPG): Moderate. Tier D (bench): Negligible.
New vs Established
Is the absence fresh or 10+ games?
Predicts: New = edge. Established = priced in.
Redistribution Budget
Absent player's production caps total redistribution
Predicts: Can't redistribute 35 PPG worth of scoring if the star only averaged 28 PPG.
On/Off Differential
Team performance with vs without the absent player
Predicts: Which teammates historically benefit most from the absence.
Framework in Action: Quantifying the Redistribution
Joel Embiid (Tier A) is OUT — fresh absence. He averaged 33 PPG, 11 RPG, 6 APG. The redistribution budget is roughly those numbers across teammates. Tyrese Maxey (flat curve) absorbs ~8 extra points. If his line only moved 4, there may be edge remaining.
When to Apply This Framework
- ✓When a Tier A/B player is confirmed OUT — quantify the redistribution
- ✓Compare redistribution budget to how much lines have already moved
- ✓Use on/off data to identify which beneficiary absorbs the most
When to Pass
- ⚠️Tier D absence — negligible redistribution
- ⚠️Established absence (10+ games) — market has absorbed it
- ⚠️Projected redistribution exceeds absent player's production
Key Takeaways
- ✓The tier system prevents overreacting to bench player absences
- ✓The redistribution budget is a ceiling — can't project more than was produced
- ✓On/off data is the most reliable way to see where opportunity flows
How DMP Helps
DMP calculates injury tiers automatically, tracks new vs established absences, and computes redistribution budget.
WNBA Learning Path →
WNBA games are 40 minutes (vs 48 NBA). Stars regularly play 35+ MPG with fewer rest days. Smaller rosters (12 vs 15) mean injuries create bigger usage swings. Apply the same framework but expect tighter minute projections.
NCAAB Note
College basketball has less historical data and wider variance in minutes/rotations. Conference strength gaps matter — a Big 12 starter vs a mid-major gets different matchup context. The same prop framework applies, but lean on recent form over season-long averages.