NBA Combo Props (PRA)
How to analyze PRA and other combo props using correlation and archetype fit
You should read this if:
You bet NBA points + rebounds + assists props and want a systematic approach.
The Core Insight
"Combo props smooth variance but require understanding which stats correlate for each player type."
The Role
- •Multi-category archetype fit — Point Forwards are ideal PRA candidates, contribute across all stats
- •Stat correlation — playmakers have correlated PTS+AST (lower combo variance)
- •One-dimensional players are combo traps — Volume Scorers are PTS-heavy with low AST/REB
Only bet combos on players whose archetype contributes meaningfully to BOTH/ALL categories.
The Redistribution
- •Expanded role lifts ALL stats simultaneously — PRA is where redistribution multiplies
- •But the role player trap applies to ALL components, not just one
- •Check correlation — do the component stats move together or trade off?
Combo props amplify redistribution because multiple stats benefit at once. But they also amplify the role player trap.
The Game
- •Pace amplifies ALL stats simultaneously — the #1 driver for combo props
- •Minutes stability — combos are the MOST minutes-dependent prop type
- •Blowout risk is the #1 threat — compresses all categories in Q4
Pace is king for combos. A high-pace, competitive game lifts all components. A low-pace blowout crushes them.
The Defense
- •DVP across PTS + REB + AST — check all relevant softness scores
- •A team soft on points but tough on assists compresses the combo differently
For combos, check per-stat DVP for each component. One tough stat can drag the whole combo below the line.
Archetype Connections
| Archetype | Points + Rebounds + Assists Tendency | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Point Forward | Ideal for PRA, contributes everywhere | Best combo prop candidates |
| Floor General | Strong P+A, weak rebounds | P+A better than PRA |
| Volume Scorer | Points-heavy, other stats bonus | PRA floor = points floor |
| Rim Protector | P+R reliable, assists rare | P+R better than PRA |
When to Bet Points + Rebounds + Assists Props
- ✓Point forward archetype in expanded role
- ✓Player averages close to line in all categories (balanced contributor)
- ✓Minutes secure regardless of game flow
- ✓Line hasn't adjusted for known absence of teammates
When to Pass
- ⚠️Player one-dimensional (great scorer, no boards/assists)
- ⚠️High variance in one category throws off combo
- ⚠️Game context limits one stat category (blowout = no assists)
- ⚠️Correlation is negative (high points games mean low assists)
Key Takeaways
- ✓Point forwards and all-around players are ideal PRA targets
- ✓Check correlation - some players trade off between categories
- ✓Combo props reduce variance only when stats correlate positively
How DMP Helps
DMP archetype badges instantly identify which players contribute across multiple categories, making combo prop analysis faster.