Stats for The Role — Player Evaluation
Usage rate, minutes, archetypes, and skill curves — the stats that define a player's baseline
You should read this if:
You bet NBA props and want to understand the mental models that drive outcomes.
The Core Insight
"Usage rate tells you how much of the offense runs through a player. Minutes tell you how long they play. The archetype tells you what they do with that time. The skill curve tells you what happens when any of it changes."
The NBA Mental Model
Usage Rate (%)
Percentage of team possessions used while on court
Predicts: Elite: 30%+, High: 25-30%, Average: 20-25%, Low: <20%. Higher usage = higher stat floor but more responsibility.
Minutes Per Game
Playing time — the multiplier for all stats
Predicts: 35+ = locked-in starter. 25-34 = rotation player. <25 = volatile.
Archetype Classification
DMP assigns archetypes from game log patterns
Predicts: Volume Scorer, Floor General, Floor Spacer, Rim Runner, Point Forward, Two-Way Wing, etc.
Skill Curve Dampening
How efficiency changes as usage increases
Predicts: >= 0.85 = flat (star absorbs load). 0.60-0.84 = moderate. < 0.60 = steep (collapses).
Framework in Action: Reading a Player Card
Jayson Tatum: Volume Scorer, 31% usage, 36.5 MPG, flat skill curve (0.88 dampening). This tells you: points props are his primary stat, he uses nearly a third of possessions, his minutes are locked in, and he can absorb extra usage when teammates sit. All from four numbers.
When to Apply This Framework
- ✓Step 1 of every NBA prop analysis — establish the baseline
- ✓When comparing two similar props — choose the player with higher usage and more stable minutes
- ✓When evaluating whether a player can absorb redistribution (check skill curve)
When to Pass
- ⚠️Don't bet on a stat not in the archetype — no assist overs on a Rim Runner
- ⚠️Volatile minutes (swing of 10+ MPG) makes all props unreliable
- ⚠️New team or new coach means the role may not be settled
Key Takeaways
- ✓Usage rate is the #1 input for points props
- ✓Minutes stability matters more than minutes average
- ✓Archetype tells you WHICH props to target
How DMP Helps
DMP shows usage rate trends (L5 vs season), minutes stability indicators, archetype badges, and skill curve classifications.
WNBA Learning Path →
WNBA games are 40 minutes (vs 48 NBA). Stars regularly play 35+ MPG with fewer rest days. Smaller rosters (12 vs 15) mean injuries create bigger usage swings. Apply the same framework but expect tighter minute projections.
NCAAB Note
College basketball has less historical data and wider variance in minutes/rotations. Conference strength gaps matter — a Big 12 starter vs a mid-major gets different matchup context. The same prop framework applies, but lean on recent form over season-long averages.